cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/8906084
Ukraine has been able to consistently strike military and military-industrial targets within Russia before, challenging the “safe rear” notion. However, 2026 has featured record levels of consistency.
Ukraine launched over 7,000 long-range drones against Russia in March 2026, hitting multiple targets across the country, including Tuapse, Perm, Ufa, Omsk, and Chelyabinsk, demonstrating that these are not one-off strikes. Multiple industrial and military sites were hit, and the Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that the strike zone had increased by 2.5 times. We list key strikes and compare their distances with those of the previous year to demonstrate how Ukraine’s capacity has grown.
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Russia’s military and oil infrastructure are now being consistently disrupted by Ukraine, and nowhere is safe for them, as much of it is within its 2000km range. Additionally, much of 80%+ of Russia’s population can and likely will see for themselves the air strikes on military and industrial infrastructure close to home, and feel the effects of the war, which changes the perception that it is something “far away”. Ukraine continues to pressure Russia, damage its military-industrial complex, and shows no signs of slowing down.
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That really is not looking good for Russia. It looks like they have lost important capabilities in their air defenses. We know that Ukraine is able to strike their refineries, and Russia does know that Ukraine wants to strike them. It would totally make sense for them to deploy air defense to protect such a strategic target as the Perm refinery.
So if Russia can’t defend their refineries, something is wrong with their air defenses. And if Ukraine can destroy the russian industry at will, Russia won’t be able to fight this war forever
Ukraine has had quite some success targeting Russian air defenses and the results are clear. It doesn’t help for Russia that their assets are spread out, requiring relatively much anti air defenses to cover everything.
Russia’s air defense were mostly developed for the cold war type of air power.
Ukraine has had to develop air defense in the active drone war.
It’s a huge difference is focus, economy, and depth.