slazer2au@lemmy.world to Showerthoughts@lemmy.worldEnglish · 3 months agoIf XCOM didn't exist before AI slop, people would assume missing 3 90% shots in a row was due to AI generated code not just how probability works.message-squaremessage-square53linkfedilinkarrow-up1293arrow-down131
arrow-up1262arrow-down1message-squareIf XCOM didn't exist before AI slop, people would assume missing 3 90% shots in a row was due to AI generated code not just how probability works.slazer2au@lemmy.world to Showerthoughts@lemmy.worldEnglish · 3 months agomessage-square53linkfedilink
minus-squareLurkingLuddite@piefed.socialBannedlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up13·3 months agoxcom percentages are also not how probability works. When you need 95%+ just to have an effective 50/50 outcome, something is royally fucked.
minus-squareStarDreamer@lemmy.blahaj.zonelinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up12·edit-23 months agoIIRC it’s a variation of the “double random number” system that Fire Emblem uses: https://serenesforest.net/general/true-hit/ https://fireemblemwiki.org/wiki/True_hit tl;dr humans are bad at percentages, so the displayed percentage is actually not the true accuracy, but a skewed number that “feels” more accurate
minus-squareLurkingLuddite@piefed.socialBannedlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up5·3 months agoIt’s definitely not accurate, though. Sure, any one roll can screw you over if it’s not 100%, but xcom is literally known for having shitty actual percentages over many rolls even while it’s showing 90%+.
minus-squareStarDreamer@lemmy.blahaj.zonelinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up5·3 months agoI’m pretty sure that’s by design. By spoofing the real accuracy, you get more dramatic moments which is good for engagement. It’s the same as GMs in tabletop games that fudge rice rolls sometimes.
xcom percentages are also not how probability works. When you need 95%+ just to have an effective 50/50 outcome, something is royally fucked.
IIRC it’s a variation of the “double random number” system that Fire Emblem uses:
https://serenesforest.net/general/true-hit/
https://fireemblemwiki.org/wiki/True_hit
tl;dr humans are bad at percentages, so the displayed percentage is actually not the true accuracy, but a skewed number that “feels” more accurate
It’s definitely not accurate, though. Sure, any one roll can screw you over if it’s not 100%, but xcom is literally known for having shitty actual percentages over many rolls even while it’s showing 90%+.
I’m pretty sure that’s by design. By spoofing the real accuracy, you get more dramatic moments which is good for engagement.
It’s the same as GMs in tabletop games that fudge rice rolls sometimes.