Hello programmers! I’ve been making a living for a couple of decades figuring out stuff for people and coding whatever will make them happy. It’s fun. I’ve grown to prefer the people to the coding but I still get a kick out of the whole thing.
The problem is: at the job we’re being asked to pivot to vibe coding. At this point the order is to use it for all code, read the slop carefully, argue with the machine for way too long and only then open that PR. Massive productivity gains are expected. I’m appalled from an ethical, philosophical and professional standpoint. We’re a non-profit ngo ffs. My colleagues are fine with it. If I get even slightly critical the group goes awkwardly silent and I get comments on how all the programmers they know from other places don’t code anymore.
If this is how it goes from now on, I’m out. Is it really though? Are all businesses switching to vibe coding? Have some of you started switching career? I think I want to go to meatspace. Hand-made coding could make a cute hobby.
The price is also a big factor. They’re currently taking big losses, so your AI usage is being subsidized by investors. Eventually they’ll want a return on that investment, so the price is going to go up. Way up.
We don’t know yet whether AI is actually cost effective over just having a developer write the code. Or maybe it’ll be cost effective to use something on the level of Haiku for simpler stuff, and a human developer does the more complicated stuff.
I don’t think it will take a societal collapse to stop the use of these tools. Just someone at your company running a cost benefit analysis on it after the AI companies start charging the full price.
The generation over generation computing power of large AI systems is pretty much doubling each generation as we go from Ada to Blackwell to Vera Rubin. Also software improvements have made old GPUs way more efficient. NVIDIA says the H100 us now 40% faster than it was new because of the software enhancements made. The losses they’re taking get smaller every day as the tech progresses.
Old GPU supplies are just about as constrained as the new ones too. You can get like 50 cents on the dollar for a 3-year old H200, and it’s not the hyperscalers buying them. Even DGX1 systems are hard to come by. Tons of companies are buying up the capacity that’s essentially worthless to the hyperscalers.
The hyperscalers aren’t getting rid of old capacity on the same cycle as they used to anymore either. 6 year old A100s are still all over Azure/AWS since the demand is still so high and stocks are so constrained. That’s a huge TCO win for the investment.
I was lucky to upgrade my GPU before the price increases, but the open weight models are quite alright for the moderate stuff, and electricity is much cheaper than the cloud token costs at the moment. So, unless HW prices will be forever high and that bleeds into the 2nd hand market too, I don’t think there will be at least some economical viability.