The AI bubble will “burst” as soon as they figure out how to inflict all the damage onto regular working people. The housing bubble bursting is what enabled the ownership class to kick a bunch of working people out of their homes and then buy up all the recently vacated real estate for cheap. Nothing about the damage that the rich did to our economy caused any of them to face any actual consequences.
The promise of AI was that it would replace all the workers, but it’s not doing that fast enough and it’s beginning to look like it never will. We’ve been hearing that the AI bubble will “burst any day now” for years at this point, but if it happened right now, the ownership class are the ones who would be left holding the bag, and that can’t be allowed to happen. When they find a way to take it out of our hides, we’ll see that suddenly the “invisible hand of the free market” will present a scenario such that the floodgates open and the bloodbath is finally allowed to proceed. I imagine that’s why they started wrapping up so many pension funds and the like in AI investments.
Exactly, as long as it’s billionaire buddies with trump, they can always print more money to keep the bubble going. When they realize they need to print the money to keep the rest of us afloat, that’s when they’ll let it crash.
They already have. Public Banks are huge investors in the private credit companies that underpin a good amount of the AI bubble.
The Magnificent 7 have been driving the stock markets gains for the last few years. They have also created independent companies to build out the data centers. The debt for these companies is off their books and funded primarily by private credit markets and is underpinned by contracts with the big 7 for data processing once the data center is built.
Projections by the Mag 7 have driven their share increase. So what happens if one or two of the magnificent 7 miss their projections? Well look at Oracle, its stock is tanking because it missed projections.
If the Mag. 7 stock tanks so will your 401ks. When their stock is worth less they will stop plowing money into AI. Suddenly all of the companies with contracts to build the data centers will loose their source of revenue. No revenue and they can’t pay off the loans to private credit. Private credit companies will start to go under and begin to take down the public banking companies that invested in them…
Its a house of cards ready to fall if any of the Mag 7 start to flounder.
It’s a good time to learn about what investments are in your 401k if you have any. You can look at the data sheets on the investments to see what stocks the index funds are made of. I’m moving mine to International index funds that are not tech heavy. I’m no expert in investing but I have heard that it’s sound to invest in companies that make basic things that people need.
Healthcare, consumer staples and utilities are considered to be defensive stocks because they are always needed regardless of economic situation.
I am minimising my exposure to US stock market as well. There is the perception that the European stock market doesn’t have the explosive growth the way that US stocks does but it is at least safer.
Japan could also be considered safe and their stock market have been on the rise after 30 years of stagnation.
The “invisible hand of the market” is such a fascinating myth, because it frames the results of capitalist endeavors as inevitable and almost holy - but as soon as the sufficiently wealthy and well-connected suffer a setback, then “government bailouts” are granted.
The invisible hand is actually very visible of you dare to look close enough.
It’s not invisible though (despite them wanting it to be).
The hand is the culture of the investment banks. They set who the winners and losers are, and if there was one thing The Big Short showed very well, it’s that anyone going against that culture is exiled.
The basic supply & demand, “invisible hand of the market” stuff applies at like. A farmer’s market. This is the context Adam Smith was talking about when he made up the invisible hand phrase. If one farmer has cheaper produce than another, he’ll probably get more customers. Anything more complicated than a local farmer’s market is… more complicated.
Same thing. Pension funds ARE the ownership class.
I’ve been commenting that people over 55 own 52% of the US and baby boomers as a generation own ~8x more than billionaires as a class, but I re-checked and I’d quoted the wrong number in a bunch of my comments. 52% is for baby boomers only. All over 55s added together are actually over 70%. Let that sink in.
The entire goal of the economy is to let old people enjoy the spoils of the young’s work. Even billionaires are just a symptom of a larger, systemic issue (which is not to say they shouldn’t be hunted for sport, that should still happen).
They own, but they don’t control that ownership. Their savings are used as investment funds, but very few actually know what they are invested in. That control is in the hands of the indexes. S&P, NASDAQ and the like. Just because NASDAQ blessed SpaceX with being part of their index, millions of pensions bought the stock.
The AI bubble will “burst” as soon as they figure out how to inflict all the damage onto regular working people. The housing bubble bursting is what enabled the ownership class to kick a bunch of working people out of their homes and then buy up all the recently vacated real estate for cheap. Nothing about the damage that the rich did to our economy caused any of them to face any actual consequences.
The promise of AI was that it would replace all the workers, but it’s not doing that fast enough and it’s beginning to look like it never will. We’ve been hearing that the AI bubble will “burst any day now” for years at this point, but if it happened right now, the ownership class are the ones who would be left holding the bag, and that can’t be allowed to happen. When they find a way to take it out of our hides, we’ll see that suddenly the “invisible hand of the free market” will present a scenario such that the floodgates open and the bloodbath is finally allowed to proceed. I imagine that’s why they started wrapping up so many pension funds and the like in AI investments.
Exactly, as long as it’s billionaire buddies with trump, they can always print more money to keep the bubble going. When they realize they need to print the money to keep the rest of us afloat, that’s when they’ll let it crash.
SPCX is the model all AI companies plan follow. IP0 valuation of 2K X forward Earnings.
Your retirement fund will be the exit liquidity forced to buy through indexes as the stocks crash and flat line.
They already have. Public Banks are huge investors in the private credit companies that underpin a good amount of the AI bubble.
The Magnificent 7 have been driving the stock markets gains for the last few years. They have also created independent companies to build out the data centers. The debt for these companies is off their books and funded primarily by private credit markets and is underpinned by contracts with the big 7 for data processing once the data center is built.
Projections by the Mag 7 have driven their share increase. So what happens if one or two of the magnificent 7 miss their projections? Well look at Oracle, its stock is tanking because it missed projections.
If the Mag. 7 stock tanks so will your 401ks. When their stock is worth less they will stop plowing money into AI. Suddenly all of the companies with contracts to build the data centers will loose their source of revenue. No revenue and they can’t pay off the loans to private credit. Private credit companies will start to go under and begin to take down the public banking companies that invested in them…
Its a house of cards ready to fall if any of the Mag 7 start to flounder.
It’s a good time to learn about what investments are in your 401k if you have any. You can look at the data sheets on the investments to see what stocks the index funds are made of. I’m moving mine to International index funds that are not tech heavy. I’m no expert in investing but I have heard that it’s sound to invest in companies that make basic things that people need.
Healthcare, consumer staples and utilities are considered to be defensive stocks because they are always needed regardless of economic situation.
I am minimising my exposure to US stock market as well. There is the perception that the European stock market doesn’t have the explosive growth the way that US stocks does but it is at least safer.
Japan could also be considered safe and their stock market have been on the rise after 30 years of stagnation.
The “invisible hand of the market” is such a fascinating myth, because it frames the results of capitalist endeavors as inevitable and almost holy - but as soon as the sufficiently wealthy and well-connected suffer a setback, then “government bailouts” are granted.
The invisible hand is actually very visible of you dare to look close enough.
It’s not invisible though (despite them wanting it to be). The hand is the culture of the investment banks. They set who the winners and losers are, and if there was one thing The Big Short showed very well, it’s that anyone going against that culture is exiled.
The basic supply & demand, “invisible hand of the market” stuff applies at like. A farmer’s market. This is the context Adam Smith was talking about when he made up the invisible hand phrase. If one farmer has cheaper produce than another, he’ll probably get more customers. Anything more complicated than a local farmer’s market is… more complicated.
I noticed the pension fund thing and I’m scared.
Same thing. Pension funds ARE the ownership class.
I’ve been commenting that people over 55 own 52% of the US and baby boomers as a generation own ~8x more than billionaires as a class, but I re-checked and I’d quoted the wrong number in a bunch of my comments. 52% is for baby boomers only. All over 55s added together are actually over 70%. Let that sink in.
The entire goal of the economy is to let old people enjoy the spoils of the young’s work. Even billionaires are just a symptom of a larger, systemic issue (which is not to say they shouldn’t be hunted for sport, that should still happen).
They own, but they don’t control that ownership. Their savings are used as investment funds, but very few actually know what they are invested in. That control is in the hands of the indexes. S&P, NASDAQ and the like. Just because NASDAQ blessed SpaceX with being part of their index, millions of pensions bought the stock.